The market-implied probability of each remaining nation lifting the FIFA World Cup 2026 trophy. Group stage is complete and 16 teams have already been eliminated in the Round of 32 — prices below reflect only the 32 teams still alive.
Last updated: July 1, 2026 · Odds are indicative — confirm the live price on Polymarket before trading.
Market-implied win probability and the equivalent decimal odds (100 ÷ probability), among the 32 teams still alive.
| # | Team | Win Probability | Decimal Odds | Comment | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
France Favorite · in R16 | 22% |
4.55× | Beat Egypt 3–1 in the Round of 32; faces Norway next. | Trade |
| 2 |  |
Brazil in R16 | 19% |
5.26× | Unbeaten through groups; thrashed Tunisia 3–0. | Trade |
| 3 |  |
Spain | 16% |
6.25× | Unbeaten in groups; plays Paraguay Jul 3. | Trade |
| 4 |  |
Germany in R16 | 13% |
7.69× | Beat Scotland 2–1; meets Netherlands next (Jul 4). | Trade |
| 5 |  |
Netherlands | 8% |
12.50× | Beat Morocco 2–0; discounted for the Germany draw. | Trade |
| 6 |  |
Argentina | 6% |
16.67× | Defending champions; must survive Portugal Jul 3. | Trade |
| 7 |  |
England | 5.5% |
18.18× | Swept the group; plays Saudi Arabia today. | Trade |
| 8 |  |
Portugal | 4% |
25.00× | Golden-generation talent, facing Argentina Jul 3. | Trade |
| 9 |  |
Belgium | 2% |
50.00× | Swept the group; plays Algeria today. | Trade |
| 10 |  |
Mexico Host | 1.5% |
66.67× | Beat Senegal 2–1; awaits England/Saudi winner. | Trade |
| 11 |  |
Uruguay | 1% |
100.0× | Plays Croatia Jul 2 for a Round of 16 berth. | Trade |
| 12 |  |
Norway | 1% |
100.0× | Needed penalties past Ivory Coast; faces France next. | Trade |
| 13 |  |
Canada Host | 0.8% |
125.0× | Beat South Korea 2–1; faces Brazil in the Round of 16. | Trade |
| 14 |  |
USA Host | 0.7% |
142.9× | Won its group; plays Ghana Jul 3. | Trade |
| 15 |  |
Colombia | 0.5% |
200.0× | Plays Austria today for a Round of 16 place. | Trade |
| — | 🌍 | All other survivors 17 teams | ~1% |
— | Switzerland, Austria, Algeria, Ecuador, Croatia, Ghana, Iran, Australia & others. | View |
* Probabilities are market-implied prices from Polymarket's World Cup 2026 Winner market and are indicative only. Prices move continuously as traders react to results and team news, and individual contracts carry a small spread — always confirm the exact live price on Polymarket before placing a trade.
A short read on each of the five teams the Polymarket consensus rates most likely to win, now that the Round of 32 is underway.
France are the new market favorite after a routine 3–1 win over Egypt in the Round of 32. Mbappé and a settled defensive spine have made Les Bleus look like the tournament's most complete side through four matches. Their reward is a Round of 16 date with Norway on Jul 5 — a winnable tie that should carry them into the quarterfinals as clear favorites.
Brazil are the only unbeaten team left with a perfect 9-point group campaign, capped by a 3–0 demolition of Tunisia in the Round of 32. The pace and directness of their front line have been the story of the tournament so far. A Round of 16 meeting with co-host Canada (Jul 4) looks very winnable on paper.
Spain remain unbeaten and have yet to concede in the knockouts — but they haven't played a knockout match yet. La Roja face Paraguay on Jul 3 as heavy favorites; a clean pass through that tie would put them right back in the title conversation alongside France and Brazil.
Germany's 2–1 win over Scotland sets up one of the biggest storylines of the round: a Jul 4 Round of 16 clash with fellow group winner Netherlands. Two pre-tournament top-10 favorites meeting this early guarantees a big name exits before the quarterfinals — the market has Germany as a modest favorite in that tie.
The Dutch beat Morocco 2–0 to reach the Round of 16, but the very next hurdle is Germany — discounting their price relative to teams with an easier run. Advance past that tie and Oranje's odds would jump sharply given how open the rest of the bracket looks.
Common questions about reading and trading the World Cup winner market.
Polymarket odds reflect the real-money consensus of thousands of traders, so they tend to track — and often move ahead of — traditional bookmaker lines. Research on prediction markets shows they are well-calibrated on average: events priced at 22% happen roughly 22% of the time across many markets. They are not a guarantee, and thinly traded or short-term prices can be noisy, but as a probability estimate they are among the most reliable public signals available.
Create a Polymarket account, deposit USDC, open the "FIFA World Cup 2026 Winner" market and buy shares of the team you fancy. If a team trades at 22 cents, you pay $0.22 per share and each winning share pays out $1.00 if that team lifts the trophy. You can sell your position at any time before the market resolves. New to this? Read our step-by-step guide for beginners.
We refresh this page after every knockout round now that the tournament has reached the Round of 32 — often daily during match days. The date in the heading reflects the last manual update. For the exact live price at any moment, always check the market on Polymarket directly.
Convert a market-implied probability to decimal odds by dividing 100 by the percentage. So 22% equals roughly 4.55 (100 ÷ 22), meaning a winning $1 stake would return about $4.55 including your stake. A 13% chance equals about 7.69, and a 4% chance equals about 25.00.